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Google Chairman: The Future Is the Exact Opposite of the Long Tail...

7/24/2013

5 Comments

 

Originally posted on 7/22/13 by Digital Music News written by  Paul Resnikoff

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When Chris Anderson first came out with the theory of the Long Tail, Google then-CEO Eric Schmidt was one of its most ardent supporters and devotees.

Fast-forward to 2013 just a few years, and the Long Tail was already been seriously undermined by Schmidt himself.  Indeed, Schmidt now feels the actual reality of the internet is the complete opposite.  In other words, bigger blockbusters than ever before, and smaller, less important niches than we could have ever imagined. Here's what Schmidt, now Google executive chairman, told the McKinsley Quarterly Review when asked about blockbusters, tails, and the future of niche media as early as 2008*.

I would like to tell you that the internet has created such a level playing field that the Long Tail is absolutely the place to be —
that there's so much differentiation, there's so much diversity, so many new voices.  Unfortunately, that's not the case.  What really happens is something called a power law, with the property that a small number of things are very highly concentrated and most other things have relatively little volume.  Virtually all of the new network markets follow this law."

"So, while the tail is very
interesting, the vast majority of revenue remains in the head. And this is a
lesson that businesses have to learn.  While you can have a Long Tail strategy,
you better have a head, because that's where all the revenue is."

 
And, in fact, it's probable that the internet will lead to larger blockbusters and more concentration of brands. Which,
again, doesn't make sense to most people, because it’s a larger distribution medium.

It's no longer a US superstar, it's a global superstar. So that means global
brands, global businesses, global sports figures, global celebrities, global scandals, global politicians.

 So, we love the Long Tail, but we make most of our revenue in the head, because of the math of the power law.  And you need both, by the way.  You need the head and the tail to make the model work.

 *In the original publication of this article, we mistakenly thought the comments were made in 2013, not 2008.






5 Comments
Googled Out
7/23/2013 10:52:08 pm

Sometimes the experts can be the most clueless contributors to the subject.

Reply
Benny
7/23/2013 10:58:19 pm

lol So true!

Reply
Paul R.
7/23/2013 10:57:08 pm

The internet will have some components that change as all things do especially in technology. It will also have components that will remain generally the same throughout time. There will be the big playing field where all of the major players and financially backed ventures will dominate, battle, and revolutionize the technology and usage. There will also be millions of niches where the everyday user will define and create what's truly relevant and those ideas will continue to spawn user independence but it will also be the the ideas that the corporations will steal.

Reply
Unknown
7/24/2013 02:11:52 pm

Just like every valuable platform....the big fish watch the little fish and when the little fish do something great the big fish eats the little fish and capitalizes from the "something" on a corporate level.

Reply
Jamie
7/24/2013 02:16:01 pm

This debate will flip flop so many times. It's best to take this information into account but do your own research specific to what you use the internet for.

Reply



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